THE BIG PICTURE

All the food markets are looking very firm at the moment if not up dramatically over the last few months. This is affecting organic markets just as much as conventional, and it looks to be a long-term trend.

What’s driving it?

We hear quite a lot about shortages here and there and high demand because of global demand, but this explanation is unconvincing. Overall raw materials supplies are adequate and global population trends didn’t just pop into view. The main driver seems to be financial speculation:  we’re seeing the same patterns of price run-ups in all the raw materials from corn to cocoa to crude oil. Underlying this speculative wave lie the failure of Wall Street reform efforts in Washington and continued low interest rates (designed to help the economy rebound and restore liquidity after the '98 meltdown) driving capital out of other instruments into commodity speculation.

The Outlook:

Our best guess is that prices will continue very firm on many if not all food ingredients until interest rates start to move back up. When is this likely to happen? We suspect this politically-unpopular strategy is unlikely to transpire until after the next election.  On the other hand, any serious weakness in the dollar could force the Fed in this direction.

BRIGHT SPOTS

A few foods are defying the odds and dropping in price. In most cases this is because they were massively inflated already! But we’re happy to take any price relief, no matter where it comes from:

Pumpkin seeds are moving down from highs well above $3/lb. We have both A and AA grade (more A's means deeper green color) though there’s not much price difference.

Mung and aduki beans are also moderating after hitting highs last year.

Chia has come down a little because of larger quantities moving into the market, mostly from Ecuador. We have two kinds now: white and black. The black is the same as our earlier plain chia (actually a combination of grey and black seeds ) and the white is a combination of cream and tan seeds.

All-purpose and high gluten flour have stayed low in price because our supplier is honoring an early contract: get it while you can because it won’t last forever!

Peanut butter stock: check lower prices  (not a market adjustment, just a good buy).

BACK AT LAST

Goji berries after a year-long gap apparently caused by the FDA finding very high pesticide residues in the Chinese crop

Tart cherries: new supply from Uzbekistan

MORE ANCIENT GRAINS

Freekeh

Emmer/farro

Ask us for info about these exciting “new” arrivals.